Labour predicted to win nearly all Conservative seats in Aberconwy

Electoral Calculus predicts a Conservative wipe out for Aberconwy if an election was held. Every ward is forecast to go to Labour bar one - Deganwy. The specialist company has worked out that Labour has a 95 per cent chance of winning and Conservatives have just a five per cent chance. 

Conservative Robin Millar became MP in 2019. With 31,865 votes cast, Mr Millar won a tight race with second time candidate Emily Owen of Llandudno with 14,687 votes to 12,653.

A table predicting the future general election results for Aberconwy forecasts that Betws-y-Coed and Trefriw would go from blue to red; Caerhun, Conwy, Craig-y-Don, Eglwysbach a Llangernyw, Gogarth Mostyn, Llanrwst and Llanddoged, Llansanffraid, Penrhyn and Uwch Conwy would also turn red. 

Bryn, Glyn y Marl, Pandy, Penmaenmawr and Tudno would remain Labour. 

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Aberconwy. Image: Electoral Calculus (Image: Electoral Calculus)

Since the government's mini-budget on 23 September, Electoral Calculus say support for the Conservative party has fallen far and fast.

In a statement, the political forecasting web site said: "As at 17 October, the Labour lead over the Conservatives now stands at 26pc. Since Labour need a lead of about 10pc for a majority, the current extraordinary lead implies a correspondingly extraordinary parliamentary majority of 364 seats.

"The Conservatives now have less than half the length of parliament to turn the polls around. But they also face economic headwinds in the short term as both family budgets and government spending are squeezed by inflation and higher interest rates. Debt deleveraging and higher rates may be good for the economy in the longer term, but the next election will happen before then."

On Monday, October 24, Rishi Sunak was named the fifth Conservative prime minister in seven years. He becomes the country's third leader in seven weeks.