A Conwy county council officer charged with planning for Brexit fears “a likely impact on jobs, businesses and communities” on top of the effects of the pandemic.

Principal European officer Barbara Burchell is also the county’s lead officer on Brexit and revealed a report showing the authority’s worst case scenario could be devastating.

It raised the possibility of food poverty – caused by increased border checks delaying supplies, fuel shortages, food fraud because of a lack of intelligence sharing and increased costs across a whole range of imported products.

Added to the economic cost of the pandemic, the possible consequences of a no-deal Brexit paint a bleak picture for a local population already ground down by coronavirus.

The report was presented to the authority’s finance and resources scrutiny committee on Monday.

A no deal Brexit raises the spectre of tariffs on Welsh lamb exports hitting the county’s farmers, along with another hit on a job market already hammered by the effects of Covid.

Ms Burchell told councillors a no deal scenario would mean “average tariffs on goods of 28%” with some dairy products attracting tariffs of 34%.

She said: “Tariffs will force up prices for consumers and the Government has started a campaign for businesses to prepare.”

The report said “friction at the borders” may “cause shortages” of medical supplies.

Betsi Cadwaldr University Health Board has already been told to hold a six-month supply of medicines in case of no deal.

The report continued: “Food poverty, which has been increasing during Covid is likely to increase with changes to household employment status and income levels, especially at the end of the furlough period.

“Increased food costs due to tariffs will exacerbate the situation for families.

“Fifty percent of people who used food banks between April and the end of the summer had never used a food bank before.  This could be a potential future burden on Social Care.”

Any disruption in food supplies could also have a knock-on effect for school meals with difficulties in stocking canteens.

It addition there may be a risk of “increased likelihood of food fraud, compounded by the loss of EC-wide data systems and intelligence sharing”.

Fuel price increases caused by increased delays at borders could affect heating costs for homeowners and lead to “reduced community and personal resilience”, said Ms Burchell.

Care homes will be affected if EU nationals working within them have not applied for settled status by next June. The council is trying to establish the position within the care sector.

There is also a risk “providers are unable to provide safe, quality care due to lack of medical devices and clinical consumables, food shortages and increased service costs”.

The report outlined the risk for children with complex needs, with resources “often sourced from the EU” giving a potential impact on supply and availability.

Longer term risks include food poverty having an adverse effect on diet-related ill health too, adding more burden to social services.

Council revenues could be hit if businesses fold, leaving premises empty and not paying rates, on top of more people struggling to pay council tax and relying on benefits to survive.

One of the other risks was the loss of EU grant funding which had provide the county with £82m for 113 different projects since 2001.

“We are not quite sure what the replacement funding will be,” said Ms Burchell.

However she stressed the report was not making predictions but showing worst case scenario results of a no-deal Brexit for which the council had to try and plan.

The problem of planning for the likely outcome has been made worse by the UK Government’s inability to strike any kind of deal with the EU.

Ms Burchell said the full effects can’t be “quantified” because of the lack of clarity around what Brexit will look like.

As an example of how much work the council faces to prepare for leaving the EU Welsh Government told local authorities it had seen 70 UK Government “end of transition preparedness projects”.

However another 130 such projects exist in Whitehall, which the UK Government claims do not impact on devolved interests – and still hasn’t shared with other UK nations.

Ms Burchell added: “This all comes at a time when personal and economic resilience is lower than it’s ever been and the effects of the global pandemic cannot be over estimated.”

The council is constantly updating its website to give more accurate advice to businesses and residents she said.

She added: “We have got challenges ahead but we are as prepared as we can be. We are just keeping up with the latest information as much as we can.”

Despite the gloomy picture she ended her presentation to councillors on a note of optimism.

She said: “I would like to leave you with a quote from TS Eliot – ‘if you aren’t in over your head, how do you know how tall you are?'”