AN INTERACTIVE map has revealed which parts of Conwy and surrounding areas could be underwater by 2040 – the year North Wales is hoping to host the Olympic Games.
Created by Climate Central, the map highlights areas threatened by sea level rise and coastal flooding by 2030. It combines one of the most advanced global models of coastal elevations with the latest projections for future flood levels.
Climate Central’s sea level rise and coastal flood maps are based on peer-reviewed science published in leading journals. However, as the maps incorporate large datasets – which always include some degree of error – they should be regarded as screening tools to identify places that may require more detailed investigation of risk.
RELATED NEWS
- Holyhead and Wrexham in frame for 2040 Olympic Games bid
- Llandudno and Abergele could be underwater by 2030
The maps are not based on physical storm and flood simulations and do not take into account factors such as erosion, future changes in the frequency or intensity of storms, inland flooding, or contributions from rainfall or rivers.
Llandudno and surrounding areas
The map suggests that the majority of Llandudno could be underwater by 2040.
West Shore Beach, Llandudno Railway Station, Parc Llandudno, Llandudno Swimming Centre, streets including Mostyn Broadway and a large section of Conway Road are all shaded red – indicating they fall below annual flood level.
North Shore Beach, Llandudno’s Grand Hotel, Happy Valley Road and Marine Drive are also marked in red.
However, areas around JD Wetherspoons – The Palladium – are spared, including nearly all of Mostyn Street up to Church Walks. Ysgol San Sior is shown as safe, along with Bonkerz Fun Centre and much of Abbey Road. The Llandudno Hospital site also remains clear.
Craig y Don is affected in parts, while Llanrhos remains largely untouched.
Tesco in Llandudno Junction is shown as affected.
Conwy
The map shows that the main town and its castle walls will largely remain untouched, along with Bodlondeb, Bodlondeb Park, and the surrounding woodlands.
The red tide begins to creep over Ysgol Aberconwy, not yet engulfing it completely, but spilling steadily into the Morfa and along Morfa Drive. It stretches all the way to the skatepark and reaches the Mulberry, sweeping over sections of the A55 expressway before curling around the woodlands toward Martine Walk. Parts of Conwy Quay, the historic waterfront, are set to be affected, along with the Morfa Bach pay-and-display car park.
Deganwy, Colwyn Bay and Rhos
Deganwy is shown to be affected in parts, primarily along the seafront, with inland areas largely spared.
Colwyn Bay’s Welsh Mountain Zoo appears untouched. Much of the rest of the town also fares well.
Rhos-on-Sea beach appears underwater, and Coleg Llandrillo is set to feel some impact. However, the majority of the town is expected to remain unscathed, with the promenade faring well.
Abergele, Kinmel Bay and Rhyl
Pensarn and Kinmel Bay are shown almost entirely in red, while Abergele again fares well, with the exception of Pentre Mawr Park and Pensarn Beach. Gwrych Castle, which hosted I'm a Celebrity Get Me Out Of Here in 2020 and 2021, is completely safe and away from any areas predicted to be affected.
The red shading continues into Rhyl but stops just beyond the train station. A large part of Rhyl town centre, including Rhyl Leisure, remains untouched. However, the water reappears over areas including Rhyl Golf Club, Lyons Robin Hood Holiday Park, along Rhyl Coast Road, onto Victoria Road and into Prestatyn, where coastal areas are again shown as impacted.
Along much of the coastline, it is mainly the beaches that have disappeared, along with large sections of the North Wales Expressway and the promenade.
Areas including Bodelwyddan and Glan Clwyd Hospital as shown as spared as well as St Asaph.
The role of sea defences
It is important to note that raw sea-level projections do not automatically mean water will reach the areas shown, particularly where sea defences such as sea walls, embankments and groynes are in place.
Coastal towns including Prestatyn and Rhyl have recently upgraded coastal defences designed to reduce flood risk, meaning the projected sea levels do not necessarily reflect real-world outcomes.
The Rhos-on-Sea coastal defence project, completed in early 2024, involved placing one million tonnes of sand to raise the beach level by five metres, protecting the seawall and surrounding infrastructure.
Olympic Bid
North Wales, including Holyhead and Wrexham, could host Olympic events under plans for a joint England and Wales bid.
Transport and North Wales Minister Ken Skates confirmed the Welsh Government intends to join discussions already under way among northern English mayors to stage a multi-city Games in 2040 or 2044.
The proposal would see events shared across the north of England and Wales, with Mr Skates keen for North Wales venues to play a central role.
One potential site is Holyhead for sailing - a location largely spared according to the interactive map projecting areas below annual flood level in 2040.
Share